Many House members are vulnerable. Here’s the Top 10

WASHINGTON — Unlike this year’s presidential and Senate races that are focused on a few intensely competitive states, there is no shortage of House battlegrounds across the country as Republicans look to expand their narrow majority while Democrats work to seize back the gavel they lost in 2022. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales has nine incumbents — four Democrats and five Republicans — in races rated Toss-up and another 17 rated either Tilt Democratic or Tilt Republican, a classification that’s just a hair beyond Toss-up. To identify the 10 most vulnerable and rank them, Roll Call’s campaign team quizzed party insiders and interest group leaders over the past two weeks and analyzed district dynamics, polling and candidates’ campaign finances. Unlike the Senate, where the traditional Top 10 has only seven names in the latest update, it was a challenge paring this list to just 10 because there are certainly many more incumbents battling for survival on Nov.

5. As with earlier versions of this list published in May, in November, and in May 2023, Republicans from California and New York are well represented because they dominate the roster of members who won seats in 2022 that in 2020 backed Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump. From the beginning of this election cycle, Democrats have been targeting the “Biden-district Republicans” as they seek to flip the net of four seats needed to control the chamber next year. The GOP also knows that, however, and has worked to shore up their colleagues. Democrats are also playing defense, especially for members from Washington state and Alaska who hold seats that backed Trump in 2020.

Alaska’s Mary Peltola makes the list for the first time this cycle after the state’s complicated primary process ended up with only one GOP opponent compared with the two she faced in 2022. Some members on earlier versions of this list are not on this one because their prospects improved, such as New York Republican Mike Lawler, whose race rating was upgraded by Inside Elections from Toss-up to Tilt Republican. But others are gone because they proved their vulnerability by losing primaries, as Democrats Cori Bush and Jamal Bowman did, or were actually expelled by their colleagues, as Republican George Santos was. This list may change again before Election Day, especially after fundraising results from the crucial third quarter are reported Oct. 15.

Not on this list, for example, is Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse, a Republican whose biggest threat comes not from a Democrat but from his party’s presidential nominee, Trump. Trump has called for his ouster because Newhouse voted to impeach him after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol by Trump supporters. Newhouse got just 23 percent of the vote in the state’s all-party primary.